Thursday, June 28, 2012

Library of Congress

I do a lot of reading. Unfortunately, the reading is typically on the internet...usually on http://www.espn.com/, http://www.nascar.com/, http://www.yahoo.com/, or http://www.bloomberg.com/. I am very interested in sports, politics and finance. A couple of weeks ago I spent hours pouring over articles in The Economist about Global Warming and its affect on weather and oil trade. I do not spend too much time reading books. I love to read Jim Collins books. I thought Good to Great was great, I loved How the Mighty Fall...I got Great by Choice a few months ago, but find myself only 35% done with the book!

So, I stumbled across a list by the Library of Congress. The list of influential, important books in American history. The list has 88 books on it, spanning approximately 29,700 pages. So I have been kicking around the idea of reading my way through the list. So, I went on another site to determine how fast I read. The site told me that I read approximately 45 pages an hour. At that pace the list is going to take a shade over 659 hours to complete. Now if I read two hours a day it will take me 330 days to read through the list! I am pretty sure that if I set a goal of reading two hours a day for the next year, I am fairly certain that I am setting myself up to fail.

Not to mention that some of the books I have no idea if I can even find...ummm, or if I have the intellect to get through. Here is a sample of some of the books on the list:

1. Experiments and Observations of Electricity by Benjamin Franklin (1751 - 540 pages)
2. The Federalist (1758 - 565 pages)
3. A Curious Hieroglyphick (1788 - 144 pages)

Some of the books I should have read in high school:

1. The Scarlett Letter by Nathaniel Hawthorne (1850 - 192 pages)
2. Moby-Dick by Herman Melville (1851 - 458 pages)
3. Adventures of Huckleberry Finn by Mark Twain (1884 - 224 pages)
4. The Call of the Wild by Jack London (1903 - 179 pages)

Some of the books I really do not want to read (these books account for approximately 10% of the pages):

1. Joy of Cooking by Irma Rombauer (1931 - 448 pages)
2. Alcoholics Anonymous (1939 - 576 pages)
3. The Common Sense Book of Baby and Child Care by Benjamin Spock (1946 - 1,152 pages)
4. Our Bodies, Ourselves by Boston Women's Health Book Collective (1971 - 944 pages)

And then some books that I am VERY interested in reading:

1. Walden by Henry David Thoreau (1854 - 224 pages)
2. How the Other Half Lives by Jacob Riis (1890 - 206 pages)
3. The Sound and the Fury by William Faulkner (1929 - 326 pages)
4. On the Road by John Kerouac (1957 - 320 pages)

I mean, I don't know anything about electricity, nor do I think I can read a book written in 1751 about electricity in 12 hours. I'm pretty sure that Benjamin Franklin wrote at a higher level than 3rd grade reading, which is where most stuff on the internet is written. Therefore, the task seems a little daunting. I was also thinking about blogging the whole process! I'll let you know!!!

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

The First Trip to LA

The year was 1988. I was on vacation with my family in Sequoia National Forest. We were on our way home and I was reading the newspaper. The Los Angeles Times has been a staple in my dad's life since I can remember. The sports page was dominated by the story of this guy being traded to the Los Angeles Kings. His name...Wayne Gretzky! I was fascinated. I asked my dad tons of questions.

Two months later, the first game of the season was about to start. I was about to watch my first hockey game on TV. The lights were off and the PA announcer said, "and number 99, Wayne Gretzky". I was mesmorized! It was the same voice that years later would say "Los Angeles goal, a power play goal, the 802nd goal of his career, scored by number 99 Wayne Gretzky, assisted by number 33 Marty McSorley and number 20 Luc Robitaille" when Wayne beat Kirk McLean to pass Gordie Howe as the all-time greatest goal scorer!

That summer day, I became a fan of hockey! I became a fan of the Los Angeles Kings. I decided that first year that my favorite player was not going to be Wayne, rather it would be Steve Yzerman (and he is still my favorite athlete today!). It has been 24 years since that summer. I have watched countless hockey games. I have been fortunate enough to see Steve hoist 3 cups with the Detroit Red Wings (my 1a favorite team). But, for the first time...the Cup is in Los Angeles (arriving in Anaheim for the Ducks doesn't count). The Kings have a chance tonight to win the Stanley Cup...it will be inside Staples Center! I have waited for 24 years to see the Kings earn an opportunity to win the cup! I can't wait any longer! GO KINGS GO!!!!!

Can I (errr, Mitch Kupchak) fix the Lakers?????

The NBA playoffs are coming to a close! This led me to start thinking about how the Lakers can re-load. Here are 4 crazy scenarios!

Pie in the Sky

Trade #1
Pau Gasol to the Miami Heat, Chris Bosh to the Los Angeles Lakers

Trade #2
Andrew Bynum to the Orlando Magic, Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers

Trade #3
Trade exception and a 2nd round draft choice to New Orleans, Trevor Ariza to the Los Angeles Lakers

Free Agent Signings
Steve Nash, Lamar Odom

Losses
Matt Barnes, Troy Murphy, Devin Ebanks, Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock

A completely ludicrous trade a few weeks ago. We were about to anoint the Miami Heat as the NBA Champions. We were headed for a Heat v. Spurs finals. The Spurs were fresh off devouring the Utah Jazz (a complete cupcake in the West), the Los Angeles Clippers (worse than a cupcake, a horribly flawed team...the '08 Hornets were a better squad with a younger, less hurt version of Chris Paul), and they had sprinted out to a 2-0 lead on the Thunder (forgive me if I never thought the Spurs were for real, despite a 20 game winning streak...felt a lot like T-Mac leading the Rockets to 23 wins in a row a few years ago!). The Heat had just dispatched the Knicks (a dysfunctional squad built around a one legged big man and a massive ego small forward), the Pacers (a chippy team but no one to lean on in big moments), and had luckily found themselves up 2-0 on the Celtics (I thought the Celtics should have won game 2).

But now, it might be possible. If the Heat get ousted tomorrow there is a growing sentiment that they will blow the thing up. And who gets the ax, for sure Spoelstra and maybe Chris Bosh. I don't think they are trading LeBron but maybe...he is just not a clutch performer. In big moments he shrinks...I've been saying this for 5 years. He is the smallest big man in the NBA. He is the best front running guy in the league! When thinks are going well, it is all smiles and dunks! When adversary hits, LeBron sinks into the corner and lets Mario Chalmers shoot big shots (he might be developing a little Jason Terry into his game and rep...I like the ice water in his veins!). D Wade isn't going anywhere either. Of the big 3, I think he has the least amount of trade value. He is already on the wrong side of 30. He has a history of breaking down...so I think he is staying put. That leaves Bosh as trade bait. Bosh is the guy who is the one who has sacrificed the most of his game. He reminds me of Lamar Odom when he was with the Lakers. He was a stat machine, but he took a lesser role to fill the gaps. It probably cost him a little future money because his stats suffered with the Lakers.

Why Bosh to the Lakers works! Bynum is down low and Bosh can be out on the wing. He can be the pick and roll big. He can knock down 17 footers with ease. He isn't all that comfortable going down low and banging bodies...so he can leave that to Drew. Gasol was never comfortable being out at the elbow in Mike Brown's offense; therefore, going to Miami allows him to go back into the post. Miami is in desperate need for someone down on the block. Gasol is still one of the top 3 low post players in the NBA.

Why Gasol to the Heat works! Gasol is a great 2nd option. He is not afraid to shot big shots. He can bang a little and grab rebounds. He has won championships and could possibly give the Heat the needed low post threat. Plus, he is not going to fight Wade or LeBron for the spotlight. He will go to work, do his job and return to the production that we are used to seeing from him.

If trade 1 happens I think both teams improve, but it might led to trade 2 which would likewise be beneficial to both squads. The Magic have to trade Dwight. He has outlived his welcome in Orlando. He has shown himself to be nothing like Shaq. Shaq bailed on Orlando, but he didn't drag the city and the team through 12 months of hell. I remember when I was sitting in church telling all my friends that Jerry West was going to get Shaq, it was a gut feeling, but none of them thought I was sane.

Why Howard to the Lakers works! If we have Bosh and Bryant we have a ton of offense, we would need a defensive stopper! Howard is the best stopper in the NBA. He would anchor the Lakers defense and allow the Lakers to gamble a lot more on defense.

Why Bynum to the Magic works! They are old and don't have a go to option. Hedo Turkaglu, Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson are not the same options they used to be. So, the Magic need an offensive player to shoulder the load. Let's face it Drew is better offensively then Howard, just like LeBron is not the closer we want him to be Dwight is the offensive threat we want him to be. Both men have been in the league too long for us to believe they are going to make any massive changes to who they are!

Call me crazy but I have a gut feeling that Ariza is a Laker next year. I love making all of these trades and convincing Nash to join the Lakers for 2 years to make 2 solid runs at titles! Although, he might prefer Miami if they do not win this year. It will give him the "I'm the missing piece" feeling! The Lakers would be re-loaded in my "pie in the sky" scenario and they would be the new hunted!

Alright, second best!

Trade #1
Pau Gasol to the Boston Celtics, Rajon Rondo to the Los Angeles Lakers

Trade #2
Trade exception and a 2nd round draft choice to New Orleans, Trevor Ariza to the Los Angeles Lakers

Free Agent Signings
Lamar Odom

Losses
Matt Barnes, Troy Murphy, Devin Ebanks, Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock

I know that I am spending a lot of Jerry Buss' money in this trade. However, I love Rondo, Bynum and Bryant as the big three. I also think that Ariza and Odom coming off the bench gives the Lakers immediately a more credible bench! It gives them a tremendous amount of flexibility!

Why this trade works for Boston? They already have made it clear they don't want to build the future around Rajon Rondo! Gasol gives them a legit star who can bridge the 2-3 year gap until they can reload.

Why this trade doesn't work for the Lakers? They already have a petulant star in Bynum, by adding Rondo...they would have two super moody stars and no Phil Jackson!

Fine, more likely!

Trade #1
Trade exception and a 2nd round draft choice to New Orleans, Trevor Ariza to the Los Angeles Lakers

Losses
Matt Barnes, Troy Murphy, Devin Ebanks, Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock

I love this trade for a few reasons. 1.) Trevor is an athletic wing that the Lakers need! He can knock down open jumpers (33.3% of his 3s this year), despite no help with the Hornets. Plus, he is an above average defender...let's face it he is Matt Barnes, just younger and better! The problem here is that we are adding salary and not getting that much better. I am not sure bringing Trevor off of the bench all of a sudden makes the Lakers a contender. Well, I take that back, I am sure that it doesn't make them a contender!


Worst Case Scenario

The Lakers brass (led by Jim Buss) thinks that the "big three" of Bynum, Gasol and Bryant are good enough to take another run or two at the NBA title. Unfortunately, I do not feel like this scenario is not that far off. Also, I don't think this assessment is that far off. Bynum and Gasol still give the Lakers an incredible front court duo. There is one thing that I am fairly sure is going to happen, and that thing is Lamar Odom coming back to the Lakers (unless someone comes along and throws stupid cash at him...and the guy in Jersey is the only one I can see doing that). In that scenario, Odom, Bynum and Gasol give the Lakers the most dynamic front court trio! Having said that, the Lakers still need help on the bench. I am not really a fan of anyone on the bench. I am hoping the Lakers can sign a legit point guard (Nash, Rondo, Williams, etc) so Sessions can be the backup! This would allow the Lakers to amnesty Blake (after the trade of Walton he is really the only amnesty contract available...unless you want to consider, gulp, Kobe Bryant!) and his $4,000,000 per year salary ($12,000,000 total). Sadly, Lamar doesn't push the Lakers back over the top...they need MORE!

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Jukebox XVIII

Well, as they say, New Year's resolutions are made to be broken! This year's ill-fated resolution was that I wanted to participate in 8 triathlons in 2012. Here I sit just a couple days short of June 1, which appears like the half way point of the year...alright, it is a month short of half...41.7% of the year to be exact. This means I need to be 3 TRIs into my goal to be on pace. Well, as usual, life happened and I am still sitting on a giant goose egg. This does not mean that I can't begin to work out and try to shave 20 pounds and still try to jam 8 TRIs into the next 215 days! Anyway, that is the goal, to begin training, which means that I will be listening to my iPod a  lot more frequently. Therefore, I am bringing back one of my favorite posts...the jukebox!

1. You Remind Me Mary J Blige

When this CD came out, it was completely OK to put your stereo up to the radio and record a song straight from the radio. This was done quite a few times during my high school career. My buddy Daniel and I loved to listen to 92.3 the Beat, 99.1 KGGI and Power 106 (105.9). One day, You Remind Me by Mary J came on and I asked Daniel if he had that song. He said, I have the CD...I wanted to listen to it. He told me that I could record it but I couldn't keep it over night because "he needed him some Mary J Blige" before bed.

2. The Best of Me Jason Aldean

A love gone wrong song. One of my favorite Aldean songs. 


3. Kush Dr Dre (feat. Snoop Dogg and Akon)

The first song released off the infamous Detox Dr Dre album. Dre and Snoop doing their thing. Snoops line, "still I am, tighter than the pants on Will.I.Am" is great. Anyway, I remember Dre and Snoop from their Deep Cover days, from their Nuthing But A "G" Thang days...I got to believe that Dre is embarrassed that Snoop is on a Katy Perry track, I know I am!

4. 2 of Americaz Most Wanted Tupac (feat. Snoop Dogg)

All Eyes On Me was a phenomenal CD. How Do You Want It featuring K-Ci and JoJo was great. I Ain't Mad At Cha featuring Danny Boy was awesome. California Love featuring Dr Dre was off the hook too. But, this song was without a doubt the best track from this album. "Ain't nuthin but a gangsta party"

5. Venus vs Mars Jay-Z

The Blueprint 3 is a great album. One of my buddies keeps telling me that rap/hip hop are dead and for the most part, I agree. Having said that, The Blueprint 3 (and Recovery by Eminem) is a great album. This album has high end pop songs (Empire State of Mind with Alicia Keys and Run This Town with Rhianna and Kanye West), as well as some other great cuts (Reminder, D.O.A.) and then there is Venus vs Mars. A good but not great song from this album. The last line "My dollars was down, she left me for some Euro’s, took my whole flavor, I call her coke zero, co-MVP like Kobe and Shaq, left me for the Heat, we were winning back to back, said I partied too much, shawty got fed up, shawty got Britney shaved her whole head up, we used to make out, kissing each others face off, fell for the ponzi scheme, damn shawty just Made-off."

6. Dear John Taylor Swift

Alright, as much as it pains me...this is actually a decent song! I am going to pretend that it isn't about some bitter public celebrity relationship! I just actually like most parts of this song. And, she doesn't seem so bitter, just young and naive.

7. You Can't Tell Me Nothing Kanye West

I can go either way with Kanye. Typically, he falls into the "hip hop music is terrible" category. But, occasionally, he has a good song...and this is one of those songs! I love this song. It has some very funny lines. "So if the Devil wears Prada, Adam and Eve wear nada, I'm somewhere in the middle but way more fresher". As funny as that line is, there is nothing funnier than Zach Galifianakis' take!

8. Lighters Bad Meets Evil (feat. Bruno Mars)

I just mentioned above that I think that Recovery and The Blueprint 3 are the best hip-hop albums released lately. I also think it is quite interesting that Eminem and Jay-Z are following a similar path (I realize that they have a few differences). They both had amazing albums that had great collaborative work. Part of that collaborative work included a pop song that featured Rhianna (Love the Way You Lie and Run This Town). They both followed up their solo albums by doing a collaborative album (Watch the Throne by Jay Z and Kanye West, Hell the Sequel Bad Meets Evil - Eminem and 5'9" Royce). Anyway, I'm not a huge Mars fan but this song is sick. If you listen to Em and 5'9" it's amazing how they mirror each others flow in this song!

9. More Bounce (in California) Soul Kid

This song screams The OC...loved the show (well, season 1 for sure, season 2 was good too...but it definitely jumped the shark in the season finale of season 2), like the song!

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Lord Stanley's Cup

Wayne Gretzky. Luc Robitaille. Tomas Sandstrom. Jari Kurri. Tony Granato. Paul Coffey. Kelly Hrudey. The mainstays of the Kings last run to the Finals! I remember that playoff run vividly.

My buddy Daniel and I had a routine everyday. We got home from school. We played street hockey until it got dark, then we ran to Foster's donuts for a snack, ran back home to watch Saved by the Bell and Dial MTV (I didn't say we weren't dorks). Oh, I forgot, we also watched almost EVERY hockey game that year. Not just every hockey game that year, but almost every second of every game.

I have a few very distinct memories from that playoff run. 1.) Gretzky scoring a hat trick against the Doug Gilmore/Wendell Clark led Toronto Maple Leafs in game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. 2.) The Kings played only Canadian teams that year in the playoffs. 3.) Gretzky scored an AMAZING empty net goal against Montreal in the first game of the Finals. 4.) Marty McSorley got busted for having an illegal stick with just a couple minutes left in game 2. The Kings were ahead 2-1. The Canadiens scored on the ensuing power play, then again in overtime to tie the series. The Kings NEVER recovered. 5.) John LeClair destroying the Kings. 6.) Patrick Roy was a beast...that the Kings couldn't overcome!

This year's run is a little different for me. I don't know all of the Kings yet. I re-kindled my love for the Kings a few years ago, so I know a few. Drew Doughty is my favorite. Dustin Brown is the heart and soul of the team, the Robitaille of '93. Kopitar is the leading scorer, the Gretzky role...although he is nowhere near the superstar that Gretz was! Quick holds the role of Hrudey, and quite frankly is way better at it than Kelly. But, beyond that...I don't know these guys.

As I try to determine who is going to win, I usually look at history. I look at goals against versus goals for. I would examine the records of the two teams and try to determine which team has an edge.I would pour over stats and create a spreadsheet that would predict the winner. However, this year is a little different. As little as I know about the Kings, I know less about the New Jersey Devils. I know Marty Brodeur! I know Ilya Kovalchuk (I wanted him to be a King SO bad when he was a free agent a couple years ago!!!). I remember Patrick Elias, but he is from the tail end of my hockey obsession. So this year, I have to go with my gut, my heart, to make any sort of pick!

As little as I know about the Kings, one thing I do know is that Bob Miller and Jim Fox are the best! I cannot stand listening to the network broadcasters. I know there must be some broadcaster code that says you can't bash anyone in the fraternity, but all of the broadcasters talking about how "great" Mike Emrick is, well it is just laughable! He literally sounds to me like a guy who has never watched hockey before. He reads the last names of the players like a child pronouncing a word that they do not know. He makes constant mistakes. If I have to listen to him mispronounce names like Daymond Langkow for another series I may have to turn the sound off! I did hear a rumor that the Kings are going to have Miller and Fox announce the games, so fans can buy them after the fact as a souvenir. I truly hope this is true! Miller and Fox are amazing. Miller is the lesser known of the Los Angeles triumvirate of sports announcers (alongside Vin Scully and Chick Hearn, please don't say Ralph Lawler to me...BINGO!), but that doesn't mean he is any less of a hall of famer!

Therefore, based on my eyeball test (I have watched somewhere between 6 and 10 kings games this postseason, but I've watch no Devils games...so this makes this a complete homer pick!), I am going with the Kings in 6 games! For this reason only, I hope the Stanley Cup Finals provide a little better hockey than the previous 3 rounds!

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

May Homes Report (Corona and Norco)

"Let me tell you something...everything you hear at a poker game is pure crap" ~ Aunt Iris

****Shocking to see this report just 7 days after my report!****
 In the first season of Friends, the boys and girls are playing poker. So, Monica asks her aunt to come and teach the girls how to play. The quote above is the "first lesson of poker". It might be appropriate to say about pretty much anything coming from the media. Yesterday the stock market advanced on "good news" from the real estate world. The existing homes data report suggests that the end is in sight; therefore, every one can be happy that we are taking the right steps to recovery.


The existing sales data report to me is as murky as ever before. There are five zip codes in Corona and average price per home decreased in three of the five zip codes (-1.32% in 92879, -12.12 in 92881 and -9.69% in 92883) in the past six months. The zip codes that showed growth were 92880 (3.42%) and 92882 (4.23%). Which results in a composite decline of 3.87% over the past six months. I realize that 3.87 is a ton better than the 13.39 declined seen in the past 4 years, but it is not the happy, cherry news that I read about yesterday. 


Now, I do understand that they were talking about national data, so that might explain the discrepancy. Having said that, I do live in California, Southern California to be exact so I obviously believe that this is the center of the world and closer to reality than any other place in the country! I also understand that the homes data report was not talking about the average price per home either. It was dealing with the median price per home and the volume of homes sold year over year. We have to realize that real estate has changed SO much in the past twelve months. The banks began to stop foreclosing homes (due to a number of reasons including fines from the government and litigation from tons of homeowners) and this is after they stopped releasing the homes that they have foreclosed for sale! What I am saying is that the banks sold less homes a few months ago which created less supply (almost no supply), this forced people who wanted to buy to bid up the homes they did buy. Therefore, the prices were artificially inflated. All you have to do is look at the homes currently available in Corona, REOs (bank owned homes) account for 1 in 8 of the homes on the market. This number is down massively off the high of a few years ago!


Lastly, there are lots of banks with tons of blood in their books. They have not released the homes that they have foreclosed, so we don't know how much worse things will get. CitiGroup Asset Disposition claims that there are 11,000,000 distressed properties in the foreclosure backlog. 

The dialog from Aunt Iris ends by her telling Pheobe, "those are nice earrings"...to which Pheobe looks around a sheepishly smiles and says, "thanks." Kind of my response to these reports...

Monday, May 21, 2012

Available Homes Report (Corona and Norco, CA)

I haven't done one of these reports in a while, so I am a little surprised by the shift in the inventory. Here is the breakdown...

Standard Sales - 204
Short Sales - 147
REOs - 50

There are literally more standard sales on the market than distressed properties. This could be due to a few reasons. One, real estate agents HATE short sales. So, there could be a large number of realtors who do not want to take the listings. Two, the banks have been beat up by federal regulators. Therefore, they may be less willing to foreclose properties. Three, homeowners may be fed up with the process and just not even attempting to short sell the homes. This could also led to homeowners being uncooperative and staying in their homes longer (filing for bankruptcy, multiple loan mod attempts, etc...).

I will post more tomorrow about the inventory in Corona and Norco.

92879

Standard Sales (26)
Short Sales (33)
REO (7)


92880

Standard Sales (50)
Short Sales (39)
REO (11)

92881

Standard Sales (44)
Short Sales (16)
REO (9)

92882

Standard Sales (34)
Short Sales (31)
REO (16)

92883

Standard Sales (50)
Short Sales (28)
REO (7)

92860

Standard Sales (37)
Short Sales (11)
REO (3)