I haven't done one of these reports in a while, so I am a little surprised by the shift in the inventory. Here is the breakdown...
Standard Sales - 204
Short Sales - 147
REOs - 50
There are literally more standard sales on the market than distressed properties. This could be due to a few reasons. One, real estate agents HATE short sales. So, there could be a large number of realtors who do not want to take the listings. Two, the banks have been beat up by federal regulators. Therefore, they may be less willing to foreclose properties. Three, homeowners may be fed up with the process and just not even attempting to short sell the homes. This could also led to homeowners being uncooperative and staying in their homes longer (filing for bankruptcy, multiple loan mod attempts, etc...).
I will post more tomorrow about the inventory in Corona and Norco.
92879
Standard Sales (26)
Short Sales (33)
REO (7)
92880
Standard Sales (50)
Short Sales (39)
REO (11)
92881
Standard Sales (44)
Short Sales (16)
REO (9)
92882
Standard Sales (34)
Short Sales (31)
REO (16)
92883
Standard Sales (50)
Short Sales (28)
REO (7)
92860
Standard Sales (37)
Short Sales (11)
REO (3)
Showing posts with label Corona inventory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Corona inventory. Show all posts
Monday, May 21, 2012
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
The inventory here in Corona took a small step (26% - 98 to 72) backwards this week. In fact, we had two of the five zip codes in Corona without a new REO listing. In fact there were only 8 REO listings total.
92879
REO (0)
Short Sale (8)
Standard (5)
92880
REO (3)
Short Sale (9)
Standard (5)
92881
REO (1)
Short Sale (5)
Standard (5)
92882
REO (4)
Short Sale (7)
Standard (4)
92883
REO (0)
Short Sale (9)
Standard (7)
92879
REO (0)
Short Sale (8)
Standard (5)
92880
REO (3)
Short Sale (9)
Standard (5)
92881
REO (1)
Short Sale (5)
Standard (5)
92882
REO (4)
Short Sale (7)
Standard (4)
92883
REO (0)
Short Sale (9)
Standard (7)
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
More on Corona Inventory
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics" ~ Benjamin Disraeli
When I was in junior high school my parents decided to go on a trip to Vegas by themselves. They left my brother and I at home for the weekend. I remember this weekend like it was yesterday, my buddies Arturo and Brian came over and my brother (who was the only one of us who had money) bought us Super Mario Bros. 3 for NES. We literally played that game for 48 hours straight, stopping to eat and nap as we tried to beat the game. We were wildly unsuccessful. We didn't beat that game until years later and a friend of ours gave us the cheat codes book. Anyway, that experience moved me away from video games that you could "beat", and from then on all I have played are sports video games. Well, one video game NCAA College Football for PlayStation 2...because I am too cheap to get the new console to just play maybe 10-15 games a year!
I play NCAA for two reasons: 1. I love USC (I tried Madden, but I have no attachment to any NFL team, although I feel a growing attachment to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots...much to the chagrin of my friends - all of whom support really random teams), and 2. I love statistics. I play the game to churn out yards. I play to win the Biletnikoff award (presented to the top wide receiver). I play to win the Heisman. I play to win National Championships. I play to recruit...and build a dynasty. It's actually quite scary...
Statistics is one of the reasons that I love my job. I get to break out my trusty number 2 and my business calc and run all kinds of numbers. I get to calculate PMI. I get to figure out the riddle of mello roos. I get to work on PITI...figure in some HOA...and I am really smoking. Questions like, how much extra purchase power would I have if I wasn't buying a property with an HOA? Or, how much would I have if I was in a lower tax area? No mello roos? No special assessment?
So, as I was running the inventory searches for Corona last night...two thoughts hit me...1. how do they calculate the "standing inventory" report we get monthly (you know the one, there are 6 months of inventory in Corona, CA - really how do you determine that?)? And, 2. the quote above on statistics. So I began to pull some data to see if I could see where we are in Corona, and more importantly where we are going.
Here is what I found:
We currently have 1,030 homes available in Corona.
147 REO
625 Short Sale
258 Standard
Over the past 12 months Corona has averaged 305 closed sales per month. The high month was June with 368. The low month was February with 248. So, someone could say that we have 3 1/3 months of "standing inventory". However, this is very misleading. During the same time period, the last 12 months, Corona has averaged 450 listings taken per month.
Now, hold on a minute, if we are adding 145 more houses than we are subtracting per month, then our "standing inventory" should be in the 1,740 range. And it would be somewhat reasonable to believe that the trend would continue in the near future. We could make the assumption that in January our inventory would be in the 1,200 range and this would continue to depress the values of all of the property in Corona.
Again, it is not quite that simple. A quick search of the MLS of the past 12 months reveals that we are averaging approx. 165 listings that go expired or canceled per month. Now, this is not an exact science because a lot of these homes are short sales and they come back on the market the next month (or 5 months later) as either a bank owned or an investor owned home.
At first glance, we are now looking at the inventory shrinking by a modest 20 listings a month. Which means, we are looking at a "standing inventory" of 50 months. This looks like we are in a state of equilibrium. The market is standing pat, values holding firm, even ticking up in some neighborhoods. I had a listing agent tell me last month, "we are going to hold out for our price because we are the only home available in the area". While he was technically correct, there were no other homes available...what he wasn't taking into consideration was the 21 homes at some stage of foreclosure in that neighborhood.
And this is our last wild card as we try to figure out where real estate is heading. There are over 3,000 homes in Corona at some stage of foreclosure. That is 1 out of 7 houses...a number that seems astronomical to me because of the amount of homes already foreclosed. This is called "shadow inventory" and is truly wrecking havoc on the real estate industry. An asset manager with Wachovia told me that they expect their bank to begin liquidating their assets by the 3rd quarter of 2011.
During the meltdown of 2008 and 2009, I felt that 2010 was going to be the quiet before the storm. Pretty interesting words because we had just been through a huge storm, but this storm was going to be different. It was going to involve people who could continue to pay the mortgage. It was going to involve more people (5 year ARMs and Option ARM loans are coming due). And the real kicker, it is going to cut an already deeply wounded economy. We have been lured into a false sense of security because the stock market is over 11,500.
The goal is to continue to work on these numbers every month so that we can have an accurate picture of what real estate is doing in Corona, CA.
When I was in junior high school my parents decided to go on a trip to Vegas by themselves. They left my brother and I at home for the weekend. I remember this weekend like it was yesterday, my buddies Arturo and Brian came over and my brother (who was the only one of us who had money) bought us Super Mario Bros. 3 for NES. We literally played that game for 48 hours straight, stopping to eat and nap as we tried to beat the game. We were wildly unsuccessful. We didn't beat that game until years later and a friend of ours gave us the cheat codes book. Anyway, that experience moved me away from video games that you could "beat", and from then on all I have played are sports video games. Well, one video game NCAA College Football for PlayStation 2...because I am too cheap to get the new console to just play maybe 10-15 games a year!
I play NCAA for two reasons: 1. I love USC (I tried Madden, but I have no attachment to any NFL team, although I feel a growing attachment to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots...much to the chagrin of my friends - all of whom support really random teams), and 2. I love statistics. I play the game to churn out yards. I play to win the Biletnikoff award (presented to the top wide receiver). I play to win the Heisman. I play to win National Championships. I play to recruit...and build a dynasty. It's actually quite scary...
Statistics is one of the reasons that I love my job. I get to break out my trusty number 2 and my business calc and run all kinds of numbers. I get to calculate PMI. I get to figure out the riddle of mello roos. I get to work on PITI...figure in some HOA...and I am really smoking. Questions like, how much extra purchase power would I have if I wasn't buying a property with an HOA? Or, how much would I have if I was in a lower tax area? No mello roos? No special assessment?
So, as I was running the inventory searches for Corona last night...two thoughts hit me...1. how do they calculate the "standing inventory" report we get monthly (you know the one, there are 6 months of inventory in Corona, CA - really how do you determine that?)? And, 2. the quote above on statistics. So I began to pull some data to see if I could see where we are in Corona, and more importantly where we are going.
Here is what I found:
We currently have 1,030 homes available in Corona.
147 REO
625 Short Sale
258 Standard
Over the past 12 months Corona has averaged 305 closed sales per month. The high month was June with 368. The low month was February with 248. So, someone could say that we have 3 1/3 months of "standing inventory". However, this is very misleading. During the same time period, the last 12 months, Corona has averaged 450 listings taken per month.
Now, hold on a minute, if we are adding 145 more houses than we are subtracting per month, then our "standing inventory" should be in the 1,740 range. And it would be somewhat reasonable to believe that the trend would continue in the near future. We could make the assumption that in January our inventory would be in the 1,200 range and this would continue to depress the values of all of the property in Corona.
Again, it is not quite that simple. A quick search of the MLS of the past 12 months reveals that we are averaging approx. 165 listings that go expired or canceled per month. Now, this is not an exact science because a lot of these homes are short sales and they come back on the market the next month (or 5 months later) as either a bank owned or an investor owned home.
At first glance, we are now looking at the inventory shrinking by a modest 20 listings a month. Which means, we are looking at a "standing inventory" of 50 months. This looks like we are in a state of equilibrium. The market is standing pat, values holding firm, even ticking up in some neighborhoods. I had a listing agent tell me last month, "we are going to hold out for our price because we are the only home available in the area". While he was technically correct, there were no other homes available...what he wasn't taking into consideration was the 21 homes at some stage of foreclosure in that neighborhood.
And this is our last wild card as we try to figure out where real estate is heading. There are over 3,000 homes in Corona at some stage of foreclosure. That is 1 out of 7 houses...a number that seems astronomical to me because of the amount of homes already foreclosed. This is called "shadow inventory" and is truly wrecking havoc on the real estate industry. An asset manager with Wachovia told me that they expect their bank to begin liquidating their assets by the 3rd quarter of 2011.
During the meltdown of 2008 and 2009, I felt that 2010 was going to be the quiet before the storm. Pretty interesting words because we had just been through a huge storm, but this storm was going to be different. It was going to involve people who could continue to pay the mortgage. It was going to involve more people (5 year ARMs and Option ARM loans are coming due). And the real kicker, it is going to cut an already deeply wounded economy. We have been lured into a false sense of security because the stock market is over 11,500.
The goal is to continue to work on these numbers every month so that we can have an accurate picture of what real estate is doing in Corona, CA.
Corona Inventory
Here is the inventory for Corona, CA as of today. I am going to be adding some additional data about trends for the area...and I hope to have this added by the end of the day today. I will be updating the inventory lists every Monday...so I hope you check back. Tomorrow I am going to outline a general format for the blog...so there will kind of be a schedule for what is to come.
Please leave me comments, letting me know what you like...and what you don't like. Thanks!!!
92879
REO (28)
Short Sale (117)
Standard (38)
92880
REO (32)
Short Sale (162)
Standard (63)
92881
REO (27)
Short Sale (65)
Standard (46)
92882
REO (32)
Short Sale (152)
Standard (46)
92883
REO (28)
Short Sale (129)
Standard (65)
Please leave me comments, letting me know what you like...and what you don't like. Thanks!!!
92879
REO (28)
Short Sale (117)
Standard (38)
92880
REO (32)
Short Sale (162)
Standard (63)
92881
REO (27)
Short Sale (65)
Standard (46)
92882
REO (32)
Short Sale (152)
Standard (46)
92883
REO (28)
Short Sale (129)
Standard (65)
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
More on Inventory
We walk through the doors, the entry opens into a large dining room/living room combo. The walls have been painted white. The floors have been upgraded to beautiful dark wood. We can see straight through the living room into the backyard (one of the things my wife loves). To the left of the living room is a hall way with 3 bedrooms (including the master). To the right is the kitchen and family room. The carpet is berber carpet in beige tones. The kitchen has black granite, stainless steel appliances and two sinks! The home is located in a secluded area just east of Corona. She boasts over 3,100 square feet and comes with a price tag a little under $500,000.
My client walks in and likes what he sees. The way I can tell this (other than the fact that we have walked into 50+ homes together) he spends a lot of time in each room, drawing sketches and taking pictures. He is an engineer and is very detailed oriented. He is a student of the comps and will not over pay.
Sidebar. Many buyers today make offers well over what the comps say. Furthermore, when you offer over listing price the banks require that you remove your appraisal contingency AND pay the difference between purchase price and appraisal (if the appraisal is low) in cash. A tactic that works because you have removed your appraisal contingency and would forfeit your deposit if you canceled because of appraisal.
Every house he wants to offer on he wants to know; tax rate, mello roos, special assessment, HOA, what the seller owes (if it is standard or short sale), and the comps. He compares the comps with zillow (using the zestimate feature), e-appraisal, and other online value sites. Then, he sends me the house he wants to offer on. There are a couple of flaws in his strategy.
1.) Time. He takes an unbelieveable amount of time to make an offer. We look at the home on Saturday.It takes until Tuesday for him to process all of the data. Then he wants to offer on Wednesday. Unfortunately, all of the bank owned homes and corporate owned (investor owned) are gone. Literally, every bank owned home that he wants to offer on is in escrow by the time we get the offer completed.
2.) Price. He is very conservative. He is desperately trying not to over pay. He wants to make sure that he gets the right home at the right price. So, when he does offer, his offers are aligned with the comps, but they are not aligned with the current market conditions. Which is low inventory and high demand, which means that people are paying more than the comps (see the sidebar above).
Which begs the question, where is the housing market headed? Here is a snapshot of the market in Corona.
Geography
There are five zip codes in Corona. They are 92879, 92880, 92881, 92882, 92883.
92879 is around the 91 and 15 freeways. The zip code is both east and west of the 15 freeway (Main St to McKinley Ave) AND north and south (2nd St in Norco to Magnolia Ave) of the 91 freeway.
92880 is the northern most part of Corona, affectionately called Eastvale. This area generally covers north of 6th St in Norco and just north of Limonite west of the 15 freeway.
92881 is south of the Ontario Ave and west of the 15 freeway.
92882 covers from Green River Rd to Lincoln Ave south of the 91 freeway.
92883 is the southern most area of Corona. The area generally covers west of the 15 FWY from Eagle Glen all the way south to Lake Elsinore.
The stats are coming tomorrow...
My client walks in and likes what he sees. The way I can tell this (other than the fact that we have walked into 50+ homes together) he spends a lot of time in each room, drawing sketches and taking pictures. He is an engineer and is very detailed oriented. He is a student of the comps and will not over pay.
Sidebar. Many buyers today make offers well over what the comps say. Furthermore, when you offer over listing price the banks require that you remove your appraisal contingency AND pay the difference between purchase price and appraisal (if the appraisal is low) in cash. A tactic that works because you have removed your appraisal contingency and would forfeit your deposit if you canceled because of appraisal.
Every house he wants to offer on he wants to know; tax rate, mello roos, special assessment, HOA, what the seller owes (if it is standard or short sale), and the comps. He compares the comps with zillow (using the zestimate feature), e-appraisal, and other online value sites. Then, he sends me the house he wants to offer on. There are a couple of flaws in his strategy.
1.) Time. He takes an unbelieveable amount of time to make an offer. We look at the home on Saturday.It takes until Tuesday for him to process all of the data. Then he wants to offer on Wednesday. Unfortunately, all of the bank owned homes and corporate owned (investor owned) are gone. Literally, every bank owned home that he wants to offer on is in escrow by the time we get the offer completed.
2.) Price. He is very conservative. He is desperately trying not to over pay. He wants to make sure that he gets the right home at the right price. So, when he does offer, his offers are aligned with the comps, but they are not aligned with the current market conditions. Which is low inventory and high demand, which means that people are paying more than the comps (see the sidebar above).
Which begs the question, where is the housing market headed? Here is a snapshot of the market in Corona.
Geography
There are five zip codes in Corona. They are 92879, 92880, 92881, 92882, 92883.
92879 is around the 91 and 15 freeways. The zip code is both east and west of the 15 freeway (Main St to McKinley Ave) AND north and south (2nd St in Norco to Magnolia Ave) of the 91 freeway.
92880 is the northern most part of Corona, affectionately called Eastvale. This area generally covers north of 6th St in Norco and just north of Limonite west of the 15 freeway.
92881 is south of the Ontario Ave and west of the 15 freeway.
92882 covers from Green River Rd to Lincoln Ave south of the 91 freeway.
92883 is the southern most area of Corona. The area generally covers west of the 15 FWY from Eagle Glen all the way south to Lake Elsinore.
The stats are coming tomorrow...
Thursday, December 10, 2009
More on inventory
Short Sales
92879 (80)
92880 (88)
92881 (37)
92882 (65)
92883 (64)
Standard Sales
92879 (22)
92880 (24)
92881 (16)
92882 (33)
92883 (39)
If we add all of the homes together...we are left with a total (I have not included any probate sales) inventory in Corona of 540 homes. I have mentioned before how low the inventory is compared to where it was just a year ago. If we looked at this on the surface, we might come to the conclusion that the worst is over for real estate in Corona. And this might very well be the case, depending on how successful the banks are at modifying loans (currently approx. 16% of loan mods are being approved). However, a little more digging reveals that there are 3,058 homes at some stage of foreclosure in Corona.
I am still working out in my own head what this means...therefore, I am offering no conclusions yet. But, I am working on it.
92879 (80)
92880 (88)
92881 (37)
92882 (65)
92883 (64)
Standard Sales
92879 (22)
92880 (24)
92881 (16)
92882 (33)
92883 (39)
If we add all of the homes together...we are left with a total (I have not included any probate sales) inventory in Corona of 540 homes. I have mentioned before how low the inventory is compared to where it was just a year ago. If we looked at this on the surface, we might come to the conclusion that the worst is over for real estate in Corona. And this might very well be the case, depending on how successful the banks are at modifying loans (currently approx. 16% of loan mods are being approved). However, a little more digging reveals that there are 3,058 homes at some stage of foreclosure in Corona.
I am still working out in my own head what this means...therefore, I am offering no conclusions yet. But, I am working on it.
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