The end of inventory (until September)

So, tomorrow turns into another day and another and another, the next thing you know...it is a week later. Fortunately for me...today just happens to be the same day that the new housing report came out. What better day to finish the post on inventory than today? Here is the gist of the housing report...

"Sales of U.S. previously owned homes plunged 27 percent in July, twice as much as forecast...at the current sales pace, it would take 12.5 months to sell [the current inventory]."

Where does that leave us in our neck of the woods? Well, inventory is down...way down...unfortunately, so is demand. It is very hard to believe that demand would be low because of the expired tax credits. You wouldn't think that $8,000 would have that big of an impact on the market but it does. Having said that, the sales data for July being way down is a little misleading. This is because SO many people did everything they could to close by June 30, 2010, in order to get the tax credit that it inflated June's numbers a little, thus making July's numbers seem that much worse.

Here is the current inventory for Corona broken down by Zip Code.

92879 - 10,755 homes. 166 (1.5%) for sale. 29 standard sales. 98 short sales. 25 REOs.

92880 - 3,729 homes. 231 (6.2%) for sale. 55 standard sales. 136 short sales. 17 REOs.

92881 - 7,510 homes. 118 (1.6%) for sale. 47 standard sales. 45 short sales. 15 REOs.

92882 - 16,310 homes. 235 (1.4%) for sale. 53 standard sales. 122 short sales. 33 REOs.

92883 - 2,015 homes. 220 (10.9%) for sale. 51 standard sales. 120 short sales. 28 REOs.

There are 40,319 homes in Corona, with a total of 970 homes on the market. This means that 2.4% of the homes in Corona are for sale. At the height of the foreclosure market (2007-2008), we were averaging 3,500 homes on the market, which is 8.7%.

More on Inventory

We walk through the doors, the entry opens into a large dining room/living room combo. The walls have been painted white. The floors have been upgraded to beautiful dark wood. We can see straight through the living room into the backyard (one of the things my wife loves). To the left of the living room is a hall way with 3 bedrooms (including the master). To the right is the kitchen and family room. The carpet is berber carpet in beige tones. The kitchen has black granite, stainless steel appliances and two sinks! The home is located in a secluded area just east of Corona. She boasts over 3,100 square feet and comes with a price tag a little under $500,000.

My client walks in and likes what he sees. The way I can tell this (other than the fact that we have walked into 50+ homes together) he spends a lot of time in each room, drawing sketches and taking pictures. He is an engineer and is very detailed oriented. He is a student of the comps and will not over pay.

Sidebar. Many buyers today make offers well over what the comps say. Furthermore, when you offer over listing price the banks require that you remove your appraisal contingency AND pay the difference between purchase price and appraisal (if the appraisal is low) in cash. A tactic that works because you have removed your appraisal contingency and would forfeit your deposit if you canceled because of appraisal.

Every house he wants to offer on he wants to know; tax rate, mello roos, special assessment, HOA, what the seller owes (if it is standard or short sale), and the comps. He compares the comps with zillow (using the zestimate feature), e-appraisal, and other online value sites. Then, he sends me the house he wants to offer on. There are a couple of flaws in his strategy.

1.) Time. He takes an unbelieveable amount of time to make an offer. We look at the home on Saturday.It takes until Tuesday for him to process all of the data. Then he wants to offer on Wednesday. Unfortunately, all of the bank owned homes and corporate owned (investor owned) are gone. Literally, every bank owned home that he wants to offer on is in escrow by the time we get the offer completed.

2.) Price. He is very conservative. He is desperately trying not to over pay. He wants to make sure that he gets the right home at the right price. So, when he does offer, his offers are aligned with the comps, but they are not aligned with the current market conditions. Which is low inventory and high demand, which means that people are paying more than the comps (see the sidebar above).


Which begs the question, where is the housing market headed? Here is a snapshot of the market in Corona.

Geography

There are five zip codes in Corona. They are 92879, 92880, 92881, 92882, 92883.

92879 is around the 91 and 15 freeways. The zip code is both east and west of the 15 freeway (Main St to McKinley Ave) AND north and south (2nd St in Norco to Magnolia Ave) of the 91 freeway.

92880 is the northern most part of Corona, affectionately called Eastvale. This area generally covers north of 6th St in Norco and just north of Limonite west of the 15 freeway.

92881 is south of the Ontario Ave and west of the 15 freeway.

92882 covers from Green River Rd to Lincoln Ave south of the 91 freeway.

92883 is the southern most area of Corona. The area generally covers west of the 15 FWY from Eagle Glen all the way south to Lake Elsinore.


The stats are coming tomorrow...

Open House Again

We opening the house again this weekend.

15722 Hummingbird Ln, Huntington Beach 92649

This charming 3 bedroom 2 bath home in highly desirable area of Huntington Beach is available. You will need to see the upgrades to believe them. The kitchen is magnificent with granite counters and pristine white cabinets. The flooring has been upgraded to wood. And you will love the backyard. Completely 'hardscaped' with a sparkling pool. You truly need to see it to appreciate it.

When: 6/26/10
Time: 12-4pm

Please visit us on the web.

Trulia
realtor.com
homefinder.com

15722 Hummingbird Ln, Huntington Beach, CA

OPEN HOUSE!!!

When: 6/5/2010
Time: 11-2pm

This home is amazing. Tons of upgrades. Beautiful new kitchen and sparkling pool in the backyard. We are opening this home up to view. There will be refreshments served. Please come by and check the home out.

LeBron's last game...

Last Thursday night, I was sitting at Tu Tu Tango in Orange County watching the last game of the year for LeBron James. Speculation is flying that The King is looking for a new throne. However, I want to take a few moments and look back on the last few minutes of his last game of the '09-'10 season. There was a moment with just over 9 minutes when I thought Boston made a tactical error. Ray Allen brushed off Rajon Rondo on the fast break, James got the steal and made a hoop in transition. The momentum (bad word) was short lived and the Cavs proved to have no heart.

4:52 - Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams take turns bricking shots. As I watch this I am getting the feeling that the Cavs are really tight. It feels like all of the Cavs know if I miss this shot, it could be the shot that sends the King out of town.

3:50 - Anderson Varejao hits two free throws to pull the Cavs within 90-78. Except old Andy, he plays with heart...passion...I like his game.

3:38 - Rasheed Wallace bricks a free throw, sinks the second. Shaq, The Big Albatross, sits on the bench sucking on his mouthpiece. There is something wrong with pro sports when we pay guys long beyond their usefulness. Shaq sucks up $21mm in cap and salary from the Cavs, yet he is sitting on the sideline not producing when the season is on the line.

3:27 - LBJ drives hard to the hoop. Paul Pierce commits the foul. The first throw rolls around and drops. The second perfect. 91-80 I am not exactly sure where this LBJ was tonight or in the previous game, but something has definitely been different.

3:09 - Wallace bricks a jumper. Every time I watch the Lakers, I prefer Kobe shooting a horribly difficult shot than anything Luke Walton can muster up against the shot clock. So, watching Wallace cast up shots with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce on the floor makes me nauseous.

2:53 - Anthony Parker nails a huge triple. 91-83 Big shot, we might be heading to a great finish.

2:30 - Wallace bricks another jumper. Wallace is bricking more jump shots than Peja and C-Webb did in the 2002 Western Conference Finals. Those guys almost broke the backboard because they were so off, Wallace is trying to shoot the Celts out of the game.

2:21 - Bron drives hard to the hole, no foul. I can't understand where LeBron is. He is completely disengaged.

2:16 - Rondo gets fouled. He bricks the first and sinks the second. I like Rondo's game. He is fast, quick, makes good decisions, rebounds like crazy and sets him team up for easy looks. What he doesn't do, he can't hit a jump shot to save his life. This is the way that I would begin to defend the Celtics. MAKE RONDO SHOOT!

2:06 - James dunks (92-85). The Cavs are right there. They need to rebound and defend to put pressure on the Celtics.

1:36 - Garnett misses a hook, Pierce misses a chippy, Rondo grabs the ball and Doc calls time. The Cavs look terrible tonight. I have no idea how they did not get the most important rebound of the season TWICE!

1:27 - Garnett hits a turn around jumper (94-85). This is what Garnett can still do.

Sidenote: I was watching ESPN the other night and saw a story about Garnett and his friend Malik Sealy. KG met the guy in Minnesota and they became very good friends. Sealy was an NBA vet when KG got to the Wolves. Anyway, long story short, Malik Sealy was killed in a head on collision. A drunk driver was driving the wrong way on the highway and struck his car. Sealy was on his way home from KG's birthday party.

Kevin has been on my list of disliked athletes because the immature way he handled being eliminated by the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in 2004. He couldn't speak without dropping f-bombs.

Anyway, after watching the story, I felt a little empathy for him. He was human. I just threw up a little in my mouth.

1:22 - Bron drives and throws under the basket to Wallace. I have no idea what LBJ is doing in this sequence. However, it is clear that he was out of the game. The entire Cavs team played like they wanted to savor the moment, rather than seizing the moment and competing for a Championship.

0:33 - Pierce misses a jumper. The Cavs let the Celtics run the clock down.

James finals line looks good, 27-19-10 on 8-21 shooting. However, he was not in this game. He looked far away. He looked like he was reflecting on the past, thinking towards the future and the enormity of his impending decision was weighing on his shoulders like nothing ever has before. He looked like kids at graduation. Satisfied with what they had accomplished, remembering the good times with fondness (the friends, the dances, etc...), nervous about what lies ahead.

Before game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, I would have said 100% he is going to return. Now, I think he is on his way out.

Corona Homes Available

92879

REO (18)
Standard (30)
Short Sale (79)

92880

REO (11)
Standard (49)
Short Sale (85)

92881

REO (11)
Standard (25)
Short Sale (30)

92882

REO (17)
Standard (36)
Short Sale (90)

92883

REO (14)
Standard (50)
Short Sale (83)

There are 628 homes available in Corona. I am going to start posting my featured listings this weekend. However, some of them are out of the area (Fullerton, Huntington Beach, etc).

Western Conference Finals Preview

As the Western Conference Finals approach, I felt it was necessary to write a preview. Without further adieu...

Center

Andrew Bynum 15.0/8.3/1.0 (10.3/8.9/1.1)
Robin Lopez 8.4/4.9/0.1 (unavailable)

This is no contest. Andrew Bynum is twice the center that Robin Lopez is. The only way that Phoenix wins this battle is if Drew's knee is actually getting worse. Drew is bigger, stronger and a better player than Lopez. Bynum should be able to have his way around the paint when Lopez is in the game. However, Lopez will win the hustle plays. If there is a knock on Bynum it is that he doesn't always match the intensity of his opponent. Lopez will bring plenty of energy. Bynum is also a liability when the Sun switch in Channing Frye for Lopez. Bynum will not follow him to the three point line.

Advantage: Lakers

Power Forward

Amar'e Stoudemire 23.1/8.9/1.0 (20.5/7.0/1.5)
Pau Gasol 18.3/11.3/3.4 (20.2/13.1/3.3)

I personally think this is a no-brainer. One of my favorite movies is Remember the Titans, there is a scene when Julius Campbell is talking to Gerry Bertier and Bertier says, "you're nothing...nothing but a waste of God-given talent". This line rings clear in my head EVERY time I watch Amar'e Stoudemire play basketball. He is a 6' 10" freak of nature. He can jump out of the gym. He plays with a ton of energy. A few years ago (2005 Playoffs) he played one of the most amazing playoff series I can remember torching Tim Duncan (41,37,34,31,and 42). However, he has gotten by on pure athleticism. He has no low post game. He can't back you down. He can dunk and from time to time drop a 19 footer and he struggles to get 10 boards a game. On the other hand Pau Gasol is legit. He has been through the battles (Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, Kendrick Perkins, KG, etc...) and he has won most of those battles. He is adept at going right, left and has a sneaky good jump shot. Lastly, if Gasol's offense isn't going well he will pitch in with 15 boards or 5 block shots or 5 assists. If the game isn't going well for Amar'e...well he will pout.

Advantage: Draw (Amar'e still has Nash getting him the ball for dunks)

Small Forward

Grant Hill 11.3/5.5/2.4 (9.5/6.7/2.3)
Ron Artest 11.0/4.3/3.0 (9.8/3.1/2.7)

Like I said last round of the playoffs, Ron Artest must feel like he is getting some time off. Kevin Durant was a bear in the first round. A constant struggle for Ron. However, Utah didn't have a good 3 for Artest to check and neither does Phoenix. I think that the Lakers should have Artest cover Richardson who has been playing well in the Playoffs and let Kobe guard the middle. Grant Hill doesn't have the game anymore to merit a big time defender.

Advantage: Lakers

Shooting Guard

Jason Richardson 15.7/5.1/1.8 (21.9/6.3/1.0)
Kobe Bryant 27.0/5.4/5.0 (26.9/3.9/4.9)

Even with all of the ailments, Kobe is better than Jason Richardson. He can shoot you into a game and he can shoot you out. I expect J-Rich's number to drop a bit on the offensive end since he has to follow Kobe around. Although, I wouldn't be surprised to see Grant Hill guard Kobe. If this switch does happen, Artest should take Richardson into the post until the Suns switch back.

Advantage: Lakers

Point Guard

Steve Nash 16.5/3.3/11 (17.8/3.1/9.0)
Derek Fisher 7.5/2.1/2.5 (10.6/2.5/3.2)

Steve Nash is one of the greatest player of all time. His pure shooting stats are out of this world (FG - 50+%, FT - 90+%, 3FG - 40+%). He is the Wayne Gretzky of basketball. He knows where his teammates will go before they do. And he hits them in stride almost every time. His weakness is on the defensive end. Fortunately for the Sun, Derek Fisher is not a primetime offensive player, so this deficiency will not be exploited too much by the Lakers. D-Fish is here for his experience and his ability to knock down timely shots.

Advantage: Suns

Bench

Channing Frye 11.2/5.3/1.4(8.7/5.6/1.1)
Leandro Barbosa 9.5/1.6/1.5(7.6/1.8/0.9)
Jared Dudley 8.2/3.4/1.4(7.4/3.5/1.9)

Lamar Odom 10.8/9.8/3.3 (8.5/8.1/1.8)
Shannon Brown 8.1/2.2/1.3 (6.6/1.6/1.0)
Jordan Farmar 7.2/1.6/1.5 (4.9/1.2/1.0)

Both teams benches have struggled this postseason. Frye has struggled to find his stroke and Odom has struggled to find a way into the flow. Odom should find a way to have an impact on the series from a rebounding and fascilitating the offense perspective. Frye will have an impact because of his ability to float around the three point line and his ability to nail long range jumpers. Barbosa can get going in a hurry, but has been very sporadic with his play this season. I expect him to get to the rim and rattle home a few open 3s in transition. The Suns bench plays with a lot of energy and can bring their team back into the game, or can extend leads that they have built. The Lakers will need to spend a lot of time slowing down the second unit of the Suns.

Advantage: Suns

Coaches

Alvin Gentry is a nice coach. However, he was fired by the Clippers and the Heat, and last year was the interim coach after Terry Porter completely tried to change the culture of the Suns. He will have his team prepared. However, Phil Jackson is the best coach in the NBA. Let's not get caught up in the hype over Greg Popovich (he is great), but Jackson has him by 6 rings. The argument that Pop hasn't had the players is silly, because Pop hasn't won a ring without Tim Duncan. Jackson has now won with his third different team (Bulls, Lakers '00-'02, Lakers '09). Phil will not be outcoached by Gentry.

Advantage: Lakers

Bottom line

The Suns have Stoudemire and Nash, but the Lakers respond with Kobe and Gasol. The Lakers run 5 deep with all-stars, the Suns just do not have enough to match up. Based on talent and experience, I do not think that the Suns have enough to win even one game in this series. However, the Lakers tend to coast when not challenged (and I don't think the Suns can challenge then), so I expect the Suns to take a game in Phoenix. The Suns only hope of extending this series is to have a 'Goran Dragic' game 4 times this series. While they do have some guys capable (Frye, Barbosa, Dragic) the odds of it happening once let alone four times are pretty small.

Prediction: Lakers in 5