More on Corona Inventory

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics" ~ Benjamin Disraeli

When I was in junior high school my parents decided to go on a trip to Vegas by themselves. They left my brother and I at home for the weekend. I remember this weekend like it was yesterday, my buddies Arturo and Brian came over and my brother (who was the only one of us who had money) bought us Super Mario Bros. 3 for NES. We literally played that game for 48 hours straight, stopping to eat and nap as we tried to beat the game. We were wildly unsuccessful. We didn't beat that game until years later and a friend of ours gave us the cheat codes book. Anyway, that experience moved me away from video games that you could "beat", and from then on all I have played are sports video games. Well, one video game NCAA College Football for PlayStation 2...because I am too cheap to get the new console to just play maybe 10-15 games a year!

I play NCAA for two reasons: 1. I love USC (I tried Madden, but I have no attachment to any NFL team, although I feel a growing attachment to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots...much to the chagrin of my friends - all of whom support really random teams), and 2. I love statistics. I play the game to churn out yards. I play to win the Biletnikoff award (presented to the top wide receiver). I play to win the Heisman. I play to win National Championships. I play to recruit...and build a dynasty. It's actually quite scary...

Statistics is one of the reasons that I love my job. I get to break out my trusty number 2 and my business calc and run all kinds of numbers. I get to calculate PMI. I get to figure out the riddle of mello roos. I get to work on PITI...figure in some HOA...and I am really smoking. Questions like, how much extra purchase power would I have if I wasn't buying a property with an HOA? Or, how much would I have if I was in a lower tax area? No mello roos? No special assessment?

So, as I was running the inventory searches for Corona last night...two thoughts hit me...1. how do they calculate the "standing inventory" report we get monthly (you know the one, there are 6 months of inventory in Corona, CA - really how do you determine that?)? And, 2. the quote above on statistics. So I began to pull some data to see if I could see where we are in Corona, and more importantly where we are going.

Here is what I found:

We currently have 1,030 homes available in Corona.

147 REO
625 Short Sale
258 Standard

Over the past 12 months Corona has averaged 305 closed sales per month. The high month was June with 368. The low month was February with 248. So, someone could say that we have 3 1/3 months of "standing inventory". However, this is very misleading. During the same time period, the last 12 months, Corona has averaged 450 listings taken per month.

Now, hold on a minute, if we are adding 145 more houses than we are subtracting per month, then our "standing inventory" should be in the 1,740 range. And it would be somewhat reasonable to believe that the trend would continue in the near future. We could make the assumption that in January our inventory would be in the 1,200 range and this would continue to depress the values of all of the property in Corona.

Again, it is not quite that simple. A quick search of the MLS of the past 12 months reveals that we are averaging approx. 165 listings that go expired or canceled per month. Now, this is not an exact science because a lot of these homes are short sales and they come back on the market the next month (or 5 months later) as either a bank owned or an investor owned home.

At first glance, we are now looking at the inventory shrinking by a modest 20 listings a month. Which means, we are looking at a "standing inventory" of 50 months. This looks like we are in a state of equilibrium. The market is standing pat, values holding firm, even ticking up in some neighborhoods. I had a listing agent tell me last month, "we are going to hold out for our price because we are the only home available in the area". While he was technically correct, there were no other homes available...what he wasn't taking into consideration was the 21 homes at some stage of foreclosure in that neighborhood.

And this is our last wild card as we try to figure out where real estate is heading. There are over 3,000 homes in Corona at some stage of foreclosure. That is 1 out of 7 houses...a number that seems astronomical to me because of the amount of homes already foreclosed. This is called "shadow inventory" and is truly wrecking havoc on the real estate industry. An asset manager with Wachovia told me that they expect their bank to begin liquidating their assets by the 3rd quarter of 2011.

During the meltdown of 2008 and 2009, I felt that 2010 was going to be the quiet before the storm. Pretty interesting words because we had just been through a huge storm, but this storm was going to be different. It was going to involve people who could continue to pay the mortgage. It was going to involve more people (5 year ARMs and Option ARM loans are coming due). And the real kicker, it is going to cut an already deeply wounded economy. We have been lured into a false sense of security because the stock market is over 11,500.

The goal is to continue to work on these numbers every month so that we can have an accurate picture of what real estate is doing in Corona, CA.

Corona Inventory

Here is the inventory for Corona, CA as of today. I am going to be adding some additional data about trends for the area...and I hope to have this added by the end of the day today. I will be updating the inventory lists every Monday...so I hope you check back. Tomorrow I am going to outline a general format for the blog...so there will kind of be a schedule for what is to come.

Please leave me comments, letting me know what you like...and what you don't like. Thanks!!!

92879

REO (28)
Short Sale (117)
Standard (38)

92880

REO (32)
Short Sale (162)
Standard (63)

92881

REO (27)
Short Sale (65)
Standard (46)

92882

REO (32)
Short Sale (152)
Standard (46)

92883

REO (28)
Short Sale (129)
Standard (65)

2222 Monterey Peninsula Dr, Corona, CA 92882

Back on the market!!! Hurry this home will not last. We went into escrow with this beauty last month but the buyer could not perform. I am including a link to the flyer for this home. Please call me if you know anyone interested!!

2222 Monterey Peninsula Dr

Lake Hills Reserve Riverside, CA

18317 Lakepointe Dr


17129 Rocky Bend Ct


16997 Rocky Bend Ct


17105 Rocky Bend Ct


16490 Village Meadow Dr


16483 Village Meadow Dr


16459 Village Meadow Dr


16474 Ridge Field Dr


16462 Ridge Field Dr


16419 Ridge Field Dr


16219 Skyridge Dr


16063 Skyridge Dr


15979 Skyridge Dr


15962 Skyridge Dr

Jukebox XV

I had a goal to be ready for a Triathlon on July 25th. The day has come and gone...the event done. I plan to blog about it soon...but for now, I will just blog the songs I listened to on my last run. I have only been on 4 since the event...probably the heat, or the lack of a goal. Either way, I need to get back out riding and running again...hopefully, this post will provide me with the motivation.

1. What The Deal Boyz II Men

The year is 2000. Boyz II Men are about 4 years past their popularity. Hanssie and I get tickets to see them at some baseball field in Rancho Cucamonga (sidenote: if your concert is in Rancho Cucamonga...you're probably not an "A-lister" anymore). Anyway, a few interesting events happened that night...a.) the opening act was O-Town...I think they were the band from "Making the Band"...I'm not really sure, anyway...they were a completely 'pre-fabricated' band. BIIM in their biography ripped 'pre-fabricated' bands. It was ironic, hilarious, hypocritical...the best part of the night. b.) You go to see Boyz II Men to hear...End of the Road, I'll Make Love to You, and On Bended Knee live. All three of the songs were (I am convinced) made popular by Mike McCrary's incredibly deep vocals - he is the guy who talks on their popular tracks. His vocals literally make the song Ooh Aah. But, I digress...we arrived early...been a Boyz fan since 1992...loved them...went to a bunch of their concerts. The time begins to melt away...I mean it is sunny when we arrived, and now it is dark...the concert was in November I think...and it was getting chilly. We were two hours past the concert starting and we hadn't even seen the opening act, let alone O-Town. Three hours in and we decided to leave. We were pushing 9 or 10pm...not one of the acts had even touched the stage. I was very bummed...anyway, this song was on the CD that was released around the time of that concert. The CD has a Spanish vibe to it...this is my favorite track.

2. Fun Fun Fun The Beach Boys

I spent a lot of time driving the San Bernardino Mountains with my dad as a kid. He owned a construction company and we would drive from job to job. The radio was always on. We were either listening to sports talk radio (no wonder I love sports) or listening to a tape (yes it was a few years ago). The tapes that he had: a.) Alleluia, a compilation of hymns, prayers and testimonies. This was always odd to me, mostly because my dad was never a super spiritual guy. He always wanted us in church, and we kind of regularly went when I was a kid...but I never saw him read his Bible or pray; b.) Alabama, Roll On. To further illustrate my point, when Roll On would come on there is a line that says, "the man upstairs was listening when mama asked him to bring daddy home again"...and I always thought they had some guy in their house who was upstairs. I wasn't used to the phrase 'man upstairs' used in reference to God; c.) The Beach Boys. I don't know the tape, probably a Greatest Hits...but songs that have stuck with me were on it; God Only Knows, When I Grow Up, Don't Worry Baby, California Girls, and Fun Fun Fun...great memories.

3. Come On Get Higher Sugarland

Mac is in love with Sugarland. Well, so am I. The summer of 2008 we spent every day together and we spent most of those days listening to this CD. This song was originally done by Matt Nathanson...I've heard that it is amazing. We have grown bored with music on the radio so we are back to listening to CDs and Mac requests this CD every time. The other day, she was looking through the booklet singing a long with the lyrics...it was amazingly cute.

4. Peaches & Cream 112

During my Boyz II Men phase, I was always on the look out for the next band that would be like them. I was always disappointed. Jodeci was awesome...mostly because of the talent of K-Ci and JoJo...those boys could flat out blow. Their version of Stevie Wonder's Lately was spectacular...I can remember listening to the single over and over and over...might have wore the thing out. Dru Hill was decent but that's it, their biggest song came when Sisqo left the group and was a one hit wonder. Blackstreet was ok too, they had one song that I loved and was my favorite song for a long time - Before I Let You Go. Az Yet was good, but only if they had Babyface writing for them, or if they borrowed songs from Chicago. But, 112 was legit...they were Puff Daddy's (I have no idea what he is called anymore) discovery. They had BIG and Ma$e on their tracks...I liked their first CD a lot. This was the only redeemable song from the second album.

5. November Rain Guns 'N Roses

Stephanie Seymour...enough said!!!

6. In Da Club 50 Cent

7. It Won't Be Like This For Long Darius Rucker

Sappy songs about dads and their daughters get to me. And this is the one that gets to me the most. I am a big fan of Darius...he has a good voice, and his records are really catchy. This song totally reminds me of Mac, and brings up a lot of great memories.

8. Love The Way You Lie Eminem feat. Rihanna

My brother reminds me a lot of Eminem. They both are kind of skinny white kids who probably grew up hanging out with the wrong crowd. They both have a lot of anger...and they both have struggled with addiction. Anyway, this song is exactly how I pictured everyone of my brothers relationships growing.

The end of inventory (until September)

So, tomorrow turns into another day and another and another, the next thing you know...it is a week later. Fortunately for me...today just happens to be the same day that the new housing report came out. What better day to finish the post on inventory than today? Here is the gist of the housing report...

"Sales of U.S. previously owned homes plunged 27 percent in July, twice as much as forecast...at the current sales pace, it would take 12.5 months to sell [the current inventory]."

Where does that leave us in our neck of the woods? Well, inventory is down...way down...unfortunately, so is demand. It is very hard to believe that demand would be low because of the expired tax credits. You wouldn't think that $8,000 would have that big of an impact on the market but it does. Having said that, the sales data for July being way down is a little misleading. This is because SO many people did everything they could to close by June 30, 2010, in order to get the tax credit that it inflated June's numbers a little, thus making July's numbers seem that much worse.

Here is the current inventory for Corona broken down by Zip Code.

92879 - 10,755 homes. 166 (1.5%) for sale. 29 standard sales. 98 short sales. 25 REOs.

92880 - 3,729 homes. 231 (6.2%) for sale. 55 standard sales. 136 short sales. 17 REOs.

92881 - 7,510 homes. 118 (1.6%) for sale. 47 standard sales. 45 short sales. 15 REOs.

92882 - 16,310 homes. 235 (1.4%) for sale. 53 standard sales. 122 short sales. 33 REOs.

92883 - 2,015 homes. 220 (10.9%) for sale. 51 standard sales. 120 short sales. 28 REOs.

There are 40,319 homes in Corona, with a total of 970 homes on the market. This means that 2.4% of the homes in Corona are for sale. At the height of the foreclosure market (2007-2008), we were averaging 3,500 homes on the market, which is 8.7%.

More on Inventory

We walk through the doors, the entry opens into a large dining room/living room combo. The walls have been painted white. The floors have been upgraded to beautiful dark wood. We can see straight through the living room into the backyard (one of the things my wife loves). To the left of the living room is a hall way with 3 bedrooms (including the master). To the right is the kitchen and family room. The carpet is berber carpet in beige tones. The kitchen has black granite, stainless steel appliances and two sinks! The home is located in a secluded area just east of Corona. She boasts over 3,100 square feet and comes with a price tag a little under $500,000.

My client walks in and likes what he sees. The way I can tell this (other than the fact that we have walked into 50+ homes together) he spends a lot of time in each room, drawing sketches and taking pictures. He is an engineer and is very detailed oriented. He is a student of the comps and will not over pay.

Sidebar. Many buyers today make offers well over what the comps say. Furthermore, when you offer over listing price the banks require that you remove your appraisal contingency AND pay the difference between purchase price and appraisal (if the appraisal is low) in cash. A tactic that works because you have removed your appraisal contingency and would forfeit your deposit if you canceled because of appraisal.

Every house he wants to offer on he wants to know; tax rate, mello roos, special assessment, HOA, what the seller owes (if it is standard or short sale), and the comps. He compares the comps with zillow (using the zestimate feature), e-appraisal, and other online value sites. Then, he sends me the house he wants to offer on. There are a couple of flaws in his strategy.

1.) Time. He takes an unbelieveable amount of time to make an offer. We look at the home on Saturday.It takes until Tuesday for him to process all of the data. Then he wants to offer on Wednesday. Unfortunately, all of the bank owned homes and corporate owned (investor owned) are gone. Literally, every bank owned home that he wants to offer on is in escrow by the time we get the offer completed.

2.) Price. He is very conservative. He is desperately trying not to over pay. He wants to make sure that he gets the right home at the right price. So, when he does offer, his offers are aligned with the comps, but they are not aligned with the current market conditions. Which is low inventory and high demand, which means that people are paying more than the comps (see the sidebar above).


Which begs the question, where is the housing market headed? Here is a snapshot of the market in Corona.

Geography

There are five zip codes in Corona. They are 92879, 92880, 92881, 92882, 92883.

92879 is around the 91 and 15 freeways. The zip code is both east and west of the 15 freeway (Main St to McKinley Ave) AND north and south (2nd St in Norco to Magnolia Ave) of the 91 freeway.

92880 is the northern most part of Corona, affectionately called Eastvale. This area generally covers north of 6th St in Norco and just north of Limonite west of the 15 freeway.

92881 is south of the Ontario Ave and west of the 15 freeway.

92882 covers from Green River Rd to Lincoln Ave south of the 91 freeway.

92883 is the southern most area of Corona. The area generally covers west of the 15 FWY from Eagle Glen all the way south to Lake Elsinore.


The stats are coming tomorrow...