Friday, February 13, 2009

Notes on the Stimulus

So, we have a stimulus package that is in front of the Senate (60-38 with 3 GOP votes). They are voting on it as I write. I thought I would put a few notes about the package. Read all about it here - stimulus.

  • Passed in the house 246-183...with no GOP support
  • $787 Billion total cost
  • Will raise national debt to $12 TRILLION!!!
  • Temporary AMT relief
  • $800 payroll tax cut for married couples, $400 for individuals, $250 for vets who do not get the $800 cut
  • $59 Billion for unemployment aid
  • $29 Billion for highway construction
  • $15.6 Billion for tuition aid
  • $11 Billions for new electrical grid
  • $8 Billion for mass transit
I will offer my insights (opinions) about the stimulus after it passes the Senate (although, I was listening to a Senator today who said that his office received the 1,400 page document after 11pm last night - exactly how is any Senator going to be able to know the scope and nature of the stimulus package having that large of a document less than 24 hours?). Everyone thinks this is a done deal (since we are clearly a partisan Country).

SIDE NOTE: Citi, Chase, B of A, and Wells Fargo (added to Fannie and Freddie) have decided to freeze all foreclosures until March due to a housing recovery plan that Obama's administration is presenting next week (more on this once it comes out).

Bank Repo Lists

Crestline
Lake Arrowhead
Running Springs
Big Bear

Is Corona the Center of the Universe? part III

In order to determine the car expense, I calculated the distance from the house to the "work" site. I then figured out the monthly expense for fuel. The problems with this was 3 fold:

1. It did not take into account the wear and tear on the vehicle.
2. It did not take into account the cost of toll roads.
3. By calculating only fuel the costs were VERY close. For example, the closest home was in Irvine and fuel costs per month was $14.66. The furthest home was in Corona and the fuel costs per month was $131.02 per month. Making the difference only $116.36.

Therefore, I decided to see what the difference would be if I calculated at the mileage reimbursement given by the Federal Government. Using the above example, the per month car expense for Irvine is $84.37, and the per month car expense for Corona is $861.96. The Corona expense also got bumped for the cost of using the toll roads daily.

The only city that comes close to Corona in monthly cost for housing and car is Santa Ana. However, to get that home in Santa Ana (which I am not saying is a bad area - but it ain't the best) you have to put out $22,000 more in downpayment. Which isn't so bad...because that nets you an internal rate of return of 10.9% on your monthly savings.

All of the other cities are not even close. The reality is simple, in Corona you will get a lot bigger bang for your buck than you will of any of the cities I looked at in Orange County except Santa Ana. The other factor that was not included in this study was HOA. The vast majority of all homes in Orange County have an HOA. In fact, a large portion of Irvine has HOA's in excess of $400 per month.

I am not going to go as far as to say that Corona is the center of the universe, but it is a very viable option for those living in the O.C.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Is Corona the Center of the Universe? part II

Now a further breakdown of the data...


Aliso Viejo

Down Payment: $119,800.00

Amount Financed: $479,200.00

Monthly Payment: $3,028.87

Car Expense: $299.96

Total: $3,328.83


Costa Mesa

Down Payment: $101,800.00

Amount Financed: $407,200.00

Monthly Payment: $2,573.78

Car Expense: $117.18

Total: $2,690.96


Irvine

Down Payment: $116,999.80

Amount Financed: $467,999.20

Monthly Payment: $2,958.07

Car Expense: $84.37

Total: 3,042.44


Newport

Down Payment: $185,800.00

Amount Financed: $743,200.00

Monthly Payment: $4,697.53

Car Expense: $98.43

Total: $4,795.96


Tustin

Down Payment: $89,980.00

Amount Financed: $359,920.00

Monthly Payment: $2,274.94

Car Expense: $114.83

Total: 2,389.77


Villa Park

Down Payment: $135,000.00

Amount Financed: $540,000.00

Monthly Payment: $3,413.17

Car Expense: $239.08

Total: $3,652.22


Santa Ana

Down Payment: $70,000.00

Amount Financed: $280,000.00

Monthly Payment: $1,769.79

Car Expense: $105.46

Total: $1,875.25


Orange

Down Payment: $83,800.00

Amount Financed: $335,200.00

Monthly Payment: $2,118.69

Car Expense: $210.92

Total: $2,329.61


RSM

Down Payment: $104,980.00

Amount Financed: $419,920.00

Monthly Payment: $2,654.18

Car Expense: $414.80

Total: $3,068.98


Corona

Down Payment: $47,980.00

Amount Financed: $191,920.00

Monthly Payment: $1,213.06

Car Expense: $861.96

Total: $2,075.02

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Is Corona the Center of the Universe?

So, every other Tuesday a lovely lady comes to clean our house (this is a requirement of my wife working full time). She prefers us to not be home...so Mac and I usually go to the bear place (Hunney's Restaurant) for breakfast. A couple weeks back I was reading an article in the Orange County Register - I know print is dead, but I had nothing else to do for 3 hours. But, I digress...

The article basically said it doesn't make financial sense to live in Riverside County when you work in Orange County. Now, the author of this article not only had a certain amount of snobbery in their writing, but they also lacked the ability to do simple math.

So, I decided to open the MLS, google maps, etc...and see what the actual numbers looked like. Here are the constants for my experiment...

Work address:
17951 Macarthur Blvd, Irvine, CA
Downpayment: 20%
Interest Rate: 6.5%
Mileage: $0.545 (current mileage reimbursement by the Federal Government)
Car: '09 Mercedes Benz C300 Sports Sedan (26 MPG highway)
Premium Gas Price: $2.47/gallon (Chevron as of today)

The City's looked at:

1. Aliso Viejo
2. Costa Mesa
3. Irvine
4. Newport
5. Tustin
6. Villa Park
7. Santa Ana
8. Orange
9. Rancho Santa Margarita
10. Corona

These homes are average...they are obviously not the top of the market, nor are they the worst houses available.

The homes:

31 STONE PINE Aliso Viejo $599,000 4 3 2108
2513 Colby Place Costa Mesa $509,900 4 2 2200
36 Gillman ST Irvine $584,999 5 3 2294
2120 Vista Laredo Newport Beach $929,000 4 3 2100
14112 Carfax AV Tustin $449,900 4 3 2138
10535 South Cedarhil Villa Park $675,000 4 3 2387
1911 West SECREST Santa Ana $350,000 4 2 2112
3343 East Ruth Place Orange $419,000 4 2 2200
19 Sunny Slope R. S. M. $524,900 4 3 2300
13453 Barker LN Corona $239,900 4 3 2100

more to come in tomorrow's post...

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Video...

Here is my promo video from Zip Realty. Zip is in the process of refining the process so there may be some updates...but check out my video and let me know what you think.

The video is on the right hand side of the page.

Monday, February 9, 2009

More ramblings, musings, et al...

* Gasol and the Lakers played tough this week knocking off Boston and Cleveland on the road.

* A-Fraud shows that baseball is in horrible shape...was anyone NOT doping? Here is Jeff Passan's take, "...he (Rodriguez) still has no saintly clue who he is: family man or cheat, religious man or agnostic, Dominican or American." Here is the whole article from Passan.

* Sean Casey wondering how A-Rod's name got out is a little disingenuous. Since when did right stop being right, and wrong stop being wrong. This country is built on the following premises "if I don't get caught, I didn't do anything wrong" and "if you aren't cheating, you are trying"...A-Rod, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens are cheaters...and apparently so are about 103 other major league players.

* Congress passes the new stimulus plan - does anyone else wonder how we are going to pay for this? If I print money at my house...they call it counterfeiting...hmmmm!

* USC's recruiting class will be great. Telfort and Jones are going to make Trojan fans forget about Te'o and Burfict...one who can't hack it academically, the other can't hack it without his friend.

* I know I ramble about it a lot...but it is worth repeating. Barack Obama wants to raise our taxes, BUT he keeps appointing guys who don't want to pay taxes!

Coming soon...

1. Kenny Chesney top 10
2. More on the bailout and congress
3. More on the landscape of REOs and Short Sales

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Grammy Ramblings...

* Taylor Swift and Miley Cyrus performing together was awkward.

* Someone please explain to me the infatuation with Coldplay?????

* Kenny Chesney is the man!

* Adele and Sugarland - seriously, who puts these artists together?

* Boyz II Men (who are not the same since Mike McCray retired), Justin Timberlake and Al Green...could we please have some relevance in our performances???? Thank you to Chris Brown for this...

* The Rock, errrr, Dwayne Johnson is not funny!

* Katy Perry - are you kidding me????

* I am really old...I seriously have no idea what Coldplay, Radiohead, etc...are singing about.

* Even on the Grammy's we can not get away from the Obama lovefest. Mortgages defaulting at record levels, companies with decades of longevity going out of business like they are start-ups, the stock market staying horribly bear-ish, the world's economy completely crumbling...yet, we are going to petition Obama to create a position to champion the arts...

Saturday, February 7, 2009

Bank Repo Lists

92879
92880
92881
92882
92883

I don't usually look at the volume for these REOs and make any comments, BUT they are WAY down!!! Normally zip codes that have 20-30 REOs a week, now they are getting 6-8 REOs.

Bank Repo Lists

91752
92860

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

The older I get...

...the more sports I am playing.

When I met Hanssie, I was a pretty dorky guy. I played softball every Tuesday (men's league) and every Friday and Saturday (church league in San Bernardino). I was also playing basketball in a league that was Mondays and Wednesdays. Once I met Hanssie the games pretty much stopped. I wasn't doing very many athletic things.

Over the years, I have remained pretty consistent playing pick up basketball. In 2006, I suffered an unbelievable ankle sprain. The swelling lasted weeks...and it took from July of '06 to January of '07 before I was able to play basketball again. Unfortunately, it was much worse than an ankle sprain. In April of '07 I was playing basketball every day for about an hour a day. I am not sure the day but it was approximately the middle of April when the rest of the ankle injury surfaced. I was playing basketball and my achilles tendon ruptured. Because of a number of circumstances I was unable to have the surgery until November of '07 and the recovery lasted until June or July of this past year.

I am just starting to get into the swing of sports again...

In July, I began playing softball on Wednesday nights. The team that I am on is very good...we have a 20-6-1 record since we started playing together and have won the league both times. Because I was still recovering from the surgery when I started, they asked me to pitch (I have earned the nickname Nolan Ryan because I am averaging over a strike out a game...not an easy task for slow pitch softball).

In August, I began playing basketball on Monday nights. A very scary proposition...I have always been a guy who likes to shoot the ball from outside, but the purpose is to open up drives to the hole. My lack of faith in my achilles leads me to make a lot of awkward decisions...and has created a ton of hesitancy in my game that was never there before. In spite of this, I have earned the nickname of Kobe, the black hole...etc, because once the ball gets in my hands it is never to be seen again. I prefer the nickname "the machine" because my game resembles Sasha Vujacic way more than it resembles Kobe.

Last week, I began to play football with a buddy of mine. I have never played organized football (unless you count the 3 days of lifting weights and running before my sophomore year in high school when I determined that I didn't have the drive to play high school football). Who knows if a nickname is on the offing??

So, here I am...approaching my 33 birthday...and here I am again playing sports 3 days a week...trying to stay in shape...trying to find an outlet for my competitiveness...mostly trying to stay healthy.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Salads...

When is a big salad a great dinner?

The day that you have 2 Denny's Grand Slam breakfasts...because they were FREE today!

If I didn't have to work so much today...it would have been a great day to play some basketball, run, something...

Ramblings, musings, etc...

This is just things that I have been thinking about a lot. Hopefully, they do not bore you...

- tomorrow is national letter of intent day for College Football. USC is poised to have a great class if they can convince Vontaze Burfict (from my town - Corona), Randall Carroll (seems like this would be simple, what with the guy having the same last name as the coach), Alshon Jeffery from de-committing.

- Tom Daschle withdraws from HHS nomination. Good move since Barack Obama wants to raise taxes and he keeps appointing guys who do NOT want to pay taxes! PS - paying your taxes after the fact is not honest...it is saving face after getting CAUGHT!

- if congress forces banks to modify peoples loans which could include but is not limited to lowering interest rates, lowering loan amounts (which basically consists of the person selling the house short to themselves) - then the whole individual credit ranking would be a worthless measure. All of the people foreclosed BEFORE the bailout would need to be relieved of the foreclosure on their credit.

- Kobe Bryant scored 61 points at MSG last night - helping to alleviate the sting of losing Andrew Bynum for the next 3 months (minimum). Pau Gasol is great a beating up bad front lines...see the Knicks, the Atlanta Hawks, etc...BUT he is going to have serious issues manning the middle against the Celtics, Magic, Cavs, Spurs...hopefully, '09 is not a repeat of '08.

- The Super Bowl was extremely boring for 52 minutes (nearly 3 hours in real life), but very entertaining for the last 8 minutes. Larry Fitzgerald is the man!

- Kenny Chesney's Lucky Old Sun is a great album. Makes me want to sit on the beach and drink (I know...I don't even drink)! You should check out his song The Life.

- California's debt has been downgraded to the lowest rated state by S&P. Should we be surprised??? No. Riverside and San Bernardino just announced letting go of approximately 450 firefighters and police officers.