Jukebox XV

I had a goal to be ready for a Triathlon on July 25th. The day has come and gone...the event done. I plan to blog about it soon...but for now, I will just blog the songs I listened to on my last run. I have only been on 4 since the event...probably the heat, or the lack of a goal. Either way, I need to get back out riding and running again...hopefully, this post will provide me with the motivation.

1. What The Deal Boyz II Men

The year is 2000. Boyz II Men are about 4 years past their popularity. Hanssie and I get tickets to see them at some baseball field in Rancho Cucamonga (sidenote: if your concert is in Rancho Cucamonga...you're probably not an "A-lister" anymore). Anyway, a few interesting events happened that night...a.) the opening act was O-Town...I think they were the band from "Making the Band"...I'm not really sure, anyway...they were a completely 'pre-fabricated' band. BIIM in their biography ripped 'pre-fabricated' bands. It was ironic, hilarious, hypocritical...the best part of the night. b.) You go to see Boyz II Men to hear...End of the Road, I'll Make Love to You, and On Bended Knee live. All three of the songs were (I am convinced) made popular by Mike McCrary's incredibly deep vocals - he is the guy who talks on their popular tracks. His vocals literally make the song Ooh Aah. But, I digress...we arrived early...been a Boyz fan since 1992...loved them...went to a bunch of their concerts. The time begins to melt away...I mean it is sunny when we arrived, and now it is dark...the concert was in November I think...and it was getting chilly. We were two hours past the concert starting and we hadn't even seen the opening act, let alone O-Town. Three hours in and we decided to leave. We were pushing 9 or 10pm...not one of the acts had even touched the stage. I was very bummed...anyway, this song was on the CD that was released around the time of that concert. The CD has a Spanish vibe to it...this is my favorite track.

2. Fun Fun Fun The Beach Boys

I spent a lot of time driving the San Bernardino Mountains with my dad as a kid. He owned a construction company and we would drive from job to job. The radio was always on. We were either listening to sports talk radio (no wonder I love sports) or listening to a tape (yes it was a few years ago). The tapes that he had: a.) Alleluia, a compilation of hymns, prayers and testimonies. This was always odd to me, mostly because my dad was never a super spiritual guy. He always wanted us in church, and we kind of regularly went when I was a kid...but I never saw him read his Bible or pray; b.) Alabama, Roll On. To further illustrate my point, when Roll On would come on there is a line that says, "the man upstairs was listening when mama asked him to bring daddy home again"...and I always thought they had some guy in their house who was upstairs. I wasn't used to the phrase 'man upstairs' used in reference to God; c.) The Beach Boys. I don't know the tape, probably a Greatest Hits...but songs that have stuck with me were on it; God Only Knows, When I Grow Up, Don't Worry Baby, California Girls, and Fun Fun Fun...great memories.

3. Come On Get Higher Sugarland

Mac is in love with Sugarland. Well, so am I. The summer of 2008 we spent every day together and we spent most of those days listening to this CD. This song was originally done by Matt Nathanson...I've heard that it is amazing. We have grown bored with music on the radio so we are back to listening to CDs and Mac requests this CD every time. The other day, she was looking through the booklet singing a long with the lyrics...it was amazingly cute.

4. Peaches & Cream 112

During my Boyz II Men phase, I was always on the look out for the next band that would be like them. I was always disappointed. Jodeci was awesome...mostly because of the talent of K-Ci and JoJo...those boys could flat out blow. Their version of Stevie Wonder's Lately was spectacular...I can remember listening to the single over and over and over...might have wore the thing out. Dru Hill was decent but that's it, their biggest song came when Sisqo left the group and was a one hit wonder. Blackstreet was ok too, they had one song that I loved and was my favorite song for a long time - Before I Let You Go. Az Yet was good, but only if they had Babyface writing for them, or if they borrowed songs from Chicago. But, 112 was legit...they were Puff Daddy's (I have no idea what he is called anymore) discovery. They had BIG and Ma$e on their tracks...I liked their first CD a lot. This was the only redeemable song from the second album.

5. November Rain Guns 'N Roses

Stephanie Seymour...enough said!!!

6. In Da Club 50 Cent

7. It Won't Be Like This For Long Darius Rucker

Sappy songs about dads and their daughters get to me. And this is the one that gets to me the most. I am a big fan of Darius...he has a good voice, and his records are really catchy. This song totally reminds me of Mac, and brings up a lot of great memories.

8. Love The Way You Lie Eminem feat. Rihanna

My brother reminds me a lot of Eminem. They both are kind of skinny white kids who probably grew up hanging out with the wrong crowd. They both have a lot of anger...and they both have struggled with addiction. Anyway, this song is exactly how I pictured everyone of my brothers relationships growing.

The end of inventory (until September)

So, tomorrow turns into another day and another and another, the next thing you know...it is a week later. Fortunately for me...today just happens to be the same day that the new housing report came out. What better day to finish the post on inventory than today? Here is the gist of the housing report...

"Sales of U.S. previously owned homes plunged 27 percent in July, twice as much as forecast...at the current sales pace, it would take 12.5 months to sell [the current inventory]."

Where does that leave us in our neck of the woods? Well, inventory is down...way down...unfortunately, so is demand. It is very hard to believe that demand would be low because of the expired tax credits. You wouldn't think that $8,000 would have that big of an impact on the market but it does. Having said that, the sales data for July being way down is a little misleading. This is because SO many people did everything they could to close by June 30, 2010, in order to get the tax credit that it inflated June's numbers a little, thus making July's numbers seem that much worse.

Here is the current inventory for Corona broken down by Zip Code.

92879 - 10,755 homes. 166 (1.5%) for sale. 29 standard sales. 98 short sales. 25 REOs.

92880 - 3,729 homes. 231 (6.2%) for sale. 55 standard sales. 136 short sales. 17 REOs.

92881 - 7,510 homes. 118 (1.6%) for sale. 47 standard sales. 45 short sales. 15 REOs.

92882 - 16,310 homes. 235 (1.4%) for sale. 53 standard sales. 122 short sales. 33 REOs.

92883 - 2,015 homes. 220 (10.9%) for sale. 51 standard sales. 120 short sales. 28 REOs.

There are 40,319 homes in Corona, with a total of 970 homes on the market. This means that 2.4% of the homes in Corona are for sale. At the height of the foreclosure market (2007-2008), we were averaging 3,500 homes on the market, which is 8.7%.

More on Inventory

We walk through the doors, the entry opens into a large dining room/living room combo. The walls have been painted white. The floors have been upgraded to beautiful dark wood. We can see straight through the living room into the backyard (one of the things my wife loves). To the left of the living room is a hall way with 3 bedrooms (including the master). To the right is the kitchen and family room. The carpet is berber carpet in beige tones. The kitchen has black granite, stainless steel appliances and two sinks! The home is located in a secluded area just east of Corona. She boasts over 3,100 square feet and comes with a price tag a little under $500,000.

My client walks in and likes what he sees. The way I can tell this (other than the fact that we have walked into 50+ homes together) he spends a lot of time in each room, drawing sketches and taking pictures. He is an engineer and is very detailed oriented. He is a student of the comps and will not over pay.

Sidebar. Many buyers today make offers well over what the comps say. Furthermore, when you offer over listing price the banks require that you remove your appraisal contingency AND pay the difference between purchase price and appraisal (if the appraisal is low) in cash. A tactic that works because you have removed your appraisal contingency and would forfeit your deposit if you canceled because of appraisal.

Every house he wants to offer on he wants to know; tax rate, mello roos, special assessment, HOA, what the seller owes (if it is standard or short sale), and the comps. He compares the comps with zillow (using the zestimate feature), e-appraisal, and other online value sites. Then, he sends me the house he wants to offer on. There are a couple of flaws in his strategy.

1.) Time. He takes an unbelieveable amount of time to make an offer. We look at the home on Saturday.It takes until Tuesday for him to process all of the data. Then he wants to offer on Wednesday. Unfortunately, all of the bank owned homes and corporate owned (investor owned) are gone. Literally, every bank owned home that he wants to offer on is in escrow by the time we get the offer completed.

2.) Price. He is very conservative. He is desperately trying not to over pay. He wants to make sure that he gets the right home at the right price. So, when he does offer, his offers are aligned with the comps, but they are not aligned with the current market conditions. Which is low inventory and high demand, which means that people are paying more than the comps (see the sidebar above).


Which begs the question, where is the housing market headed? Here is a snapshot of the market in Corona.

Geography

There are five zip codes in Corona. They are 92879, 92880, 92881, 92882, 92883.

92879 is around the 91 and 15 freeways. The zip code is both east and west of the 15 freeway (Main St to McKinley Ave) AND north and south (2nd St in Norco to Magnolia Ave) of the 91 freeway.

92880 is the northern most part of Corona, affectionately called Eastvale. This area generally covers north of 6th St in Norco and just north of Limonite west of the 15 freeway.

92881 is south of the Ontario Ave and west of the 15 freeway.

92882 covers from Green River Rd to Lincoln Ave south of the 91 freeway.

92883 is the southern most area of Corona. The area generally covers west of the 15 FWY from Eagle Glen all the way south to Lake Elsinore.


The stats are coming tomorrow...